Someone asked me yesterday why I stopped writing.
I gave him the easy answers. Too busy. Wasn’t happy with what I was putting out. Didn’t want to be one more advisor cluttering your inbox. All true. None of it the real reason.
The real reason is harder to admit. I’d lost the thread. I didn’t know what I wanted to say anymore, and the stuff I was making had started to bore me. And I figured if it bored me, it would bore you, so I’d rather send nothing than send filler. So I sent nothing. For months.
Then yesterday it hit me. Almost a thousand of you chose to subscribe to this newsletter. Ten thousand-plus more connected to me, tens of thousands on my email list. If even a fraction of you walked into a room because you wanted to hear what I actually think, I’d never wave it off. I’d be honored. Somehow I’d let "I don’t have it perfect yet" talk me out of showing up at all. That stops today.
So let me start over and tell you the story I should have told you years ago.
This is from memory, 26 years back, so the numbers are close but not exact. The lesson is.
I was 21, in the back of a lecture hall, half-listening to a professor talk about something I was sure I’d never use. My head was somewhere else, because I had the market figured out.
I owned one stock. A company called CMGI. It had split for me again and again, and every time it did I got a little more sure I was smarter than everyone in that room, including the guy at the front getting paid to teach me. That afternoon it jumped 85 dollars a share. I was holding 3,600 shares. I did the math under the desk instead of taking notes, and the number was bigger than what my professor made in years. In one afternoon. Half asleep.
I want you to understand the feeling, because the feeling is the trap. It wasn’t greed. It was certainty. That calm, total belief that I’d found the cheat code and all I had to do now was wait to get rich. Retire by 25, easy. In my head I wasn’t gambling. I was just early.
Then the market turned.
The first down day, I wasn’t worried. I’d seen red days before and they always came back. The second day took a bigger bite and I felt something cold for the first time, but I told myself what everybody tells themselves on the way down. It’ll bounce. It always bounces. I’ll make it all back in a couple weeks. So I held. The third day was worse. The week after that, worse. And here’s what nobody warns you about. It doesn’t crash all at once and let you off the hook. It bleeds. Slow enough that every morning you can still talk yourself into believing today is the bottom, that selling now would be the real mistake. So you hold. And you hold.
It never came back. The company went under and took almost everything I had with it. Hundreds of thousands of dollars, gone, at an age when most people haven’t saved their first ten grand. I remember the day it finally hit me that it was really gone. I didn’t cry and I didn’t rage. I just sat there, dead still, with nothing to say. Twenty-one years old, staring at a number that used to be my future.
And I wasn’t alone. People I knew got wiped out the same way that same year. We all thought we were early. We were just wrong, together.
I’ve watched that same story play out, in the same shape, for 26 years now. Different names, different decades, same ending.
2008 just handed my story to a new crowd. Everything in one place, no plan, frozen by fear, losses locked in that took ten years to climb back from. And it didn’t stop in 2008.
Here’s how it looks now. Somebody in their early forties with a few million dollars in their own company’s stock, almost everything they own riding on one name. From the outside the move is obvious. Sell a real chunk, spread it out, stay aggressive if you want, just don’t bet your whole life on one ticker. But from the inside it never feels obvious, because everyone at the office is holding too, and who are you to be the one who blinks first. Then the stock gives back half its value in a few months, sometimes a lot more than half, and when that’s almost everything you own, a few months turns into the years you spend trying to dig out. If you ever do.
This isn’t some old dot-com story. Household names get cut in half in a single year all the time. And the more sure everyone is that a company can’t be touched, the better the story usually is on the way down.
So why do smart, successful people keep walking right into it? Loyalty to the company that made them rich. Fear of selling right before one more big run. And the quiet one that gets almost everybody, the tax bill. Selling means writing a check to the IRS, the check feels brutal, so they hold. And hold. And hold. Same word I just used on myself.
Here’s what 26 years has beaten into me. No company is safe. Not the one with no competition. Not the one with the moat, the fat margins, the perfect spot for wherever the world is going next. Some of the biggest companies that ever existed fell off their peak and didn’t get back for ten or twenty years. Some never did. Some aren’t around anymore to argue about it.
Things change. And they change fast. Fast enough that by the time it’s obvious, the time to do anything about it is already gone.
Everyone’s situation is different and this isn’t aimed at you specifically, so take it as a way of thinking and not a recommendation. The tax you’d pay to trim a dangerous position is a number you can see today. The cost of being wrong about "it’ll be fine" is a number you don’t find out until later, and by then it’s usually the whole thing.
This is the reason I do any of this. I made the mistake young, when I still had time to come back from it. I had decades to make my money back. They didn’t. I watched people I love do the same thing in their fifties and sixties, and some of them never recovered. I see it every week. One quiet decision that bends the rest of someone’s life, and they don’t feel it happening until it’s done. I couldn’t keep watching that and say nothing. That’s why I became a fiduciary. Not to sell you something. To sit on the other side of the table from everyone whose job is to sell you something, and tell you the truth.
That’s the whole thing. The people I work with spend less than they make, keep some cash ready, and don’t fall apart when everyone else does. So when the market finally drops, it doesn’t have to feel like the end of the world. It can feel like a door opening.
We appreciate the upside. We get excited about the downside.
I learned that the hardest way there is. I’d rather you never have to.
I’m back. Talk Tuesday.
— Mateo
Mateo Dellovo is also affiliated with real estate development and private investment businesses, including CopperForge Development, CopperForge Capital and Gulfstream Global Partners. These affiliations can present conflicts of interest. Nothing on this site is an offer or solicitation of any security, including an interest in any private fund. Any individuals or situations described are illustrative and not specific clients.